Contents
Section One
Executive Summary
1.1 Conclusions
1.2 Observations
1.2.1 Upgrade drivers vary
1.2.2 Triple and quadruple plays
1.2.3 One leg of the stool
1.2.4 All IP network integration
1.2.5 VoIP
1.2.6 Choices and more Choices
1.3 Assessment by Technology
1.3.1 802.16/WiMAX
1.3.2 802.20
1.3.3 FLASH-OFDM
1.3.4 UMTS TDD
1.3.5 HSDPA and beyond (UMTS FDD)
1.3.6 TD-SCDMA
1.4 Summary Figures
1.4.1 Next generation networks
global subscribers 2010
1.4.2 Global subscribers by technology 2010
1.4.3 Global service revenues 2010
1.4.4 Global service revenues by technology 2010
1.4.5 Global device shipments 2010
1.4.6 Global device shipments by technology 2010
1.4.7 Global device revenues 2010
1.4.8 Global device revenues by technology 2010
1.4.9 Global cumulative NGN base station deployments 2010
1.4.10 Global cumulative base station deployments by technology
2010
1.4.11 Global base station revenues 2010
1.4.12 Global base station revenues by technology 2010
1.5 Final Thoughts
Section Two
4G and Next Generation Networks Background, Objectives and
Rationale
2.1 4G Definitions
2.1.1 IP network
2.1.2 Data capabilities
2.1.3 Network aggregation
2.1.4 Converged platform
2.1.5 Economic improvements
2.1.6 Open platform
2.1.7 Standard bodies
2.1.8 Definition summary
2.2 Next Generation Network
2.3 4G Migration Paths and
Candidates
2.3.1 802.16
2.3.2 802.20
2.3.3 UMTS
2.3.4 NTT DoCoMo
2.3.5 4G-NGN proprietary technologies here today
2.4 4G and NGN Services and
Applications
2.5 4G Component Characteristics
2.6 Discussion
2.6.1 New migration plans
beyond 3G
2.6.2 Some dissatisfaction with 3G
2.6.3 Alternative means to address short-term capacity shortages
2.6.4 Differentiation in competitive markets
2.6.5 Savings
2.6.6 Too much, too late
2.6.7 Telecommunications, a computing application
Section Three
802.20 Standard
3.1 History of 802.20 Standard
3.2 Design Objectives
3.3 Target Segments
3.4 Target Bands
3.5 Potential Operators
3.6 Participants
3.7 Service Range
3.8 Time Table
3.9 Proposed Features
3.10 Product Form Factor
3.11 Discussion
3.11.1 Market impact
3.11.2 Political considerations
3.11.3 Complement or competitor
3.11.4 Why the market needs another wireless standard
3.11.5 How 802.20 is different from the other wireless standards
3.11.6 Is 802.20 arriving too late?
3.12 Evaluation of 802.20
3.13 802.20 Expectations
3.13.1 Global 802.20
subscribers
3.13.2 Global 802.20 service revenues
3.13.3 Global 802.20 device shipments
3.13.4 Global 802.20 device revenues
3.13.5 Global 802.20 base station deployments
3.13.6 Global 802.20 base station revenues
Section Four
802.16 / WiMAX
4.1 Definition
4.2 802.16 Versions and Work Groups
4.2.1 WirelessMAN-SC
4.2.2 WirelessMAN-SCa
4.2.3 WirelessMAN-OFDM
4.2.4 WirelessMAN-OFDMA
4.2.5 WirelessHUMAN
4.3 802.16 Active Projects
4.3.1 802.16e
4.3.2 802.16f and 802.16g
4.3.3 802.16h
4.4 Participation
4.5 Support Organizations
4.5.1 WiMAX
4.5.2 Cetecom
4.6 Market segments
4.7 Capabilities/Expectations
4.7.1 Bandwidth
4.7.2 Range
4.7.3 Spectral efficiency
4.7.4 Bands
4.7.5 Channel sizes
4.7.6 MAC and services
4.7.7 N-LoS
4.8 Competitive options
4.8.1 Proprietary systems
4.8.2 802.20
4.8.3 802.11
4.8.4 Mobile standards
4.9 Time to Market
4.9.1 Chipsets
4.9.2 Certified Equipment
4.9.3 Deployment and services
4.10 Pricing
4.10.1 CPE
4.10.2 Base Stations
4.10.3 Chipsets
4.11 Product Attributes
4.11.1 Air interface
4.11.2 Duplexing
4.11.3 Bands
4.12 Notes on the BWA Sector
4.12.1 An Early History of
Disappointment
4.12.2 Causes
4.12.2.1 Limited capabilities
4.12.2.2 High costs
4.12.2.3 No volumes and standards
4.12.2.4 Over-aggressive expansion
4.12.2.5 Lack of differentiation
4.12.2.6 Lack of marketing efficiencies
4.12.2.7 Lack of network scale
4.12.3 Solutions
4.12.3.1 Technical solutions
4.12.3.2 Business model solutions
4.12.3.3 Alliances with municipalities
4.12.3.4 Mobile and fixed wireless convergence
4.12.3.5 Standards implemented and followed
4.13 Conclusions
4.13.1 A worldwide
opportunity
4.13.2 Different carriers, different visions
4.13.3 A push for 802.16e
4.13.4 More than mobility
4.13.5 A comment on expectations
4.13.6 Securing a beachhead
4.14 Figures
4.14.1 Global WiMAX users and
service revenues
4.14.2 WiMAX Users: commercial vs. residential
4.14.3 WiMAX users: 802.16d vs. 802.16e
4.14.4 Global WiBro users
4.14.5 Global WiMAX CPE shipments and revenues
4.14.6 Global WiMAX CPE shipments by revision (802.16e,
802.16d)
4.14.7 Global WiMAX base station deployments and revenues
Section Five
Next Generation Networks Proprietary and Otherwise
5.1 NGN History
5.2 NGN Prospects
5.3 Solutions
5.3 ArrayComm, Inc.
5.3.1 Background
5.3.2 Products/Technology
5.3.3 Partners
5.3.4 Developments
5.3.5 Strategy
5.3.6 Evaluation
5.4 FLASH-OFDM
5.4.1 Qualcomm acquisition
5.4.2 Background
5.4.3 Products/Technology
5.4.4 Partners
5.4.5 Market developments
5.4.6 Strategy
5.4.7 Conclusion
5.5 Navini Networks
5.5.1 Background
5.5.2 Products/Technology
5.5.3 Partners
5.5.4 Developments
5.5.5 Strategy
5.5.6 Conclusion
5.6 NGN Conclusion
5.7 Figures
5.7.1 Global subscribers by NGN
vendors
5.7.2 Proprietary tech NGN global service revenues
5.7.3 Proprietary tech NGN global client terminal shipments
5.7.4 Proprietary tech NGN global terminal revenues
5.7.5 Proprietary tech NGN global base stations deployments
5.7.6 Proprietary tech NGN global base station revenues
5.7.7 FLASH-OFDM/802.20 global subscribers
5.7.8 FLASH-OFDM global service revenues
5.7.9 FLASH-OFDM global subscriber terminal shipments
5.7.10 FLASH-OFDM global subscriber terminal revenues
5.7.11 FLASH-OFDM global base station deployments
5.7.12 FLASH-OFDM global base station revenues
Section Six
UMTS HSDPA and Beyond (HSUPA, Super 3G)
6.1 No Standing Still
6.2 Capabilities
6.3 Modifications
6.4 Upgrade Path
6.5 Vendor Support
6.6 Terminals: When and Where
6.7 Operators
6.8 Timing
6.9 Drivers
6.10 HSUPA
6.11 Super 3G – UTRAN LTE
6.12 Discussion
6.12.1 Willing HSDPA
participants
6.12.2 Audience is large
6.12.3 Global role
6.12.4 Limitations
6.12.5 HSDPA adds value to UMTS
6.12.6 Real impact
6.12.7 Is Super 3G already too late?
6.13 Forecasts
6.13.1 World WCDMA /HSDPA
subscribers
6.13.2 Global WCDMA/HSDPA device shipments
6.13.3 Global WCDMA/HSDPA base station deployments
6.13.4 Global HSDPA subscribers
6.13.5 Global HSDPA service revenues
6.13.6 HSDPA global device shipments
6.13.7 HSDPA global device value
6.13.8 Global HSDPA base station deployments
Section Seven
UMTS TDD (TD-CDMA)
7.1 UMTS TDD Background
7.2 Technology
7.2.1 UMTS TDD capacity
7.2.3 UMTS TDD channel Size
7.2.4 UMTS TDD mobility
7.2.5 UMTS TDD core network
7.2.6 UMTS TDD frequency bands
7.2.7 TDD advantages
7.3 Support Base
7.4 UMTS TDD devices
7.5 UMTS TDD deployments
7.6 UMTS TDD trials
7.7 IP Wireless
7.7.1 Background
7.7.2 Products/Technology
7.8 Discussion
7.8.1 Scale
7.8.2 UMTS TDD is a standard
7.8.3 TDD bands in Japan
7.8.4 UMTS TDD availability
7.8.5 UMTS TDD future improvements
7.9 UMTS TDD Evaluation
7.10 Figures
7.10.1 Global UMTS TDD
subscribers
7.10.2 Global UMTS TDD service revenues
7.10.3 Subscriber device shipments
7.10.4 Subscriber device value
7.10.5 Global UMTS TDD base station deployments
7.10.6 Global UMTS TDD base station value
Section Eight
TD-SCDMA
8.1 Definition
8.2 Timeline
8.3 Licenses
8.4 Spectrum
8.5 Participation
8.5.1 Vendors
8.5.2 Operator assessment
8.6 Capabilities
8.7 Advantages
8.8 Key Technologies
8.8.1 Joint detection
8.8.2 TDD
8.8.3 Smart antennas
8.9 Two TD-SCDMAs
8.9.1 TSM
8.9.2 TDD-LCR
8.10 Competitive outlook
8.10.1 Basic voice (fixed and
mobile)
8.10.2 3G
8.11 Discussion
8.11.1 Uncertainty
8.11.2 TD-SCDMA is too late, in part
8.11.3 Opportunities beyond China
8.11.4 The geopolitical view
8.11.5 TD-SCDMA will also evolve
8.12 Conclusions
8.13 Figures
8.13.1 China mobile subscribers
8.13.2 Global TD-SCDMA subscribers
8.13.3 China TD-SCDMA subscribers
8.13.3 Rest of world TD-SCMA subscribers
8.13.4 Global TD-SCDMA service revenues
8.13.5 TD-SCDMA global subscriber device shipments
8.13.6 TD-SCDMA subscriber device revenues
8.13.7 Global TD-SCDMA base station shipments and deployments
8.13.8 Global TD-SCDMA base station shipments revenues
Section Nine
NTT DoCoMo (Japan) 4G
and NGN Efforts
9.1 Background
9.2 Do it Alone
9.3 Time Frame
9.4 4G Testing Attributes
9.4.1 Air interface
9.4.2 Throughput and bandwidth
9.4.3 Band
9.4.4 Duplexing
9.4.5 Range
9.4.6 Other technologies
9.5 Applications
9.6 Evaluation
9.7 Other Developments in Japan
9.7.1 Vodafone
9.7.2 TDD spectrum
Section Ten
NGN and 4G Technologies Components, Elements and Enablers
10.1 Purpose
10.2 Air Interface Definitions
10.2.1 CDMA
10.2.2 TD-SCDMA
10.2.3 WCDMA
10.2.4 OFDM
10.2.5 OFDMA
10.2.6 OFDM with frequency hopping
10.2.7 W-OFDM
10.2.8 TDMA
10.3 Duplexing
10.3.1 TDD
10.3.2 FDD
10.4 Space-Time Processing and Smart Antenna Overview
10.4.1 Smart antennas defined
10.4.2 Space-time processing
10.4.3 Smart antenna terms and technologies
10.4.3.1 Active smart
antennas
10.4.3.2 Beam forming
10.4.3.3 Diversity combining
10.4.3.4 Diversity (switched)
10.4.3.5 Maximum ratio combining
10.4.3.6 MIMO
10.4.3.7 Passive smart antennas
10.4.3.8 Polarization diversity
10.4.3.9 Spatial diversity
10.4.3.10 Spatial multiplexing
10.4.3.11 Switched beam
10.5 Other Enablers
10.5.1 Software defined radio
10.5.2 Adaptive modulation
10.5.3 Forward error correction
10.5.4 Fast automatic repeat request
10.5.5 Joint detection
10.5.6 Mesh networking
Forecasts and Figures
Section One
Table 1-1 NGN, HSDPA and TD –SCDMA Subscribers, World Market
2004-2010
Table 1-2 Subscribers by Technology, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA,
802.20, 802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems
World Market 2010
Table 1-3 HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16, Flash-OFDM, UMTS
TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems, Service Revenues, World Market
2004-2010
Table 1-4 Service Revenues by Technology, Next Generation
Networks World Market 2010
Table 1-5 HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16, Flash-OFDM, UMTS
TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems, Total Device Shipments, World
Market 2004-2010
Table 1-6 Device Shipments by Technology, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA,
802.20, 802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems
World Market 2010
Table 1-7 Total Device Revenues, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20,
802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems World
Market 2004-2010
Table 1-8 Device Revenues by Technology, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA,
802.20, 802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems
World Market 2010
Table 1-9 Base Stations Deployed, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA, 802.20,
802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems World
Market 2004-2010
Table 1-10 Base Stations Deployed by Technology, HSDPA, TD-SCDMA,
802.20, 802.16, Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems
World Market 2010
Table 1-11 Base Station Revenues, TD-SCDMA, 802.20, 802.16,
Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems, World Market
2004-2010
Table 1-12 Base Station Revenues by Technology, TD-SCDMA,
802.20, 802.16 Flash-OFDM, UMTS TDD and Proprietary NGN Systems
World Market 2010
Section Three
Table 3-1 802.20 Subscribers, World Market 2007-2010
Table 3-2 802.20 Service Revenues, World Market 2007-2010
Table 3-3 802.20 User Device Shipments, World Market
2007-2010
Table 3-4 802.20 Device Revenues, World Market 2007-2010
Table 3-5 802.20 Base Station Shipments and Deployments,
World Market 2007–2010
Table 3-6 802.20 Infrastructure Revenues, World Market
2007–2010
Section Four
Table 4-1 802.16 Subscribers, World Market 2005-2010
Table 4-2 802.16 Service Revenues, World Market 2005-2010
Table 4-3 802.16 Subscribers: Residential vs. Commercial
Users World Market 2005-2010
Table 4-4 802.16 Users by Revision (E or D), World Market
2005-2010
Table 4-5 WiBro Subscribers, World Market 2005-2010
Table 4-6 802.16 CPE Shipments, World Market 2005-2010
Table 4-7 802.16 CPE Revenues, World Market 2005-2010
Table 4-8 802.16 Device Shipments by Revision, 802.16d/a
vs. 802.16e World Market 2005-2010
Table 4-9 802.16 Base Station Shipments and Deployments
World Market 2005-2010
Table 4-10 802.16 Base Station Revenues, World Market
2005-2010
Section Five
Table 5-1 Proprietary Technology NGN Subscribers, World Market
2004-2010
Table 5-2 Proprietary Technology NGN Service Revenues,
World Market 2004-2010
Table 5-3 Proprietary Technology NGN, Device Shipments,
World Market 2004-2010
Table 5-4 Proprietary Technology NGN Device Revenues, World
Market 2004-2010
Table 5-5 Proprietary Technology NGN Base Station Shipments
and Deployments World Market 2004-2010
Table 5-6 Proprietary Technology NGN, Base Station
Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
Table 5-7 FLASH-OFDM Subscribers, World Market 2005-2010
Table 5-8 FLASH-OFDM and 802.20 Subscribers, World Market
2005-2010
Table 5-9 FLASH-OFDM Service Revenues, World Market
2005-2010
Table 5-10 FLASH-OFDM Device Shipments, World Market
2005-2010
Table 5-11 FLASH-OFDM Device Revenues, World Market
2005-2010
Table 5-12 FLASH-OFDM Base Station Shipments and
Deployments World Market 2005-2010
Table 5-13 FLASH-OFDM Base Station Revenues, World Market
2005-2010
Section Six
Table 6-1 WCDMA and HSDPA Subscribers, World Market
2004-2010
Table 6-2 WCDMA and HSDPA Device Shipments, World Market
2004-2010
Table 6-3 WCDMA and HSDPA Base Station Shipments and
Deployments World Market 2004-2010
Table 6-4 HSDPA Subscribers, World Market 2005-2010
Table 6-5 HSDPA Service Revenues, World Market 2005-2010
Table 6-6 HSDPA Device Shipments, World Market 2005-2010
Table 6-7 HSDPA Device Revenues, World Market 2005-2010
Table 6-8 HSDPA Base Station Shipments and Deployments
World Market 2005-2010
Section Seven
Table 7-1 UMTS TDD Forum Membership, Operators 2005
Table 7-2 UMTS TDD Forum Membership, Vendors 2005
Table 7-3 UMTS TDD Subscribers, World Market 2004-2010
Table 7-4 UMTS TDD Service Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
Table 7-5 UMTS TDD Device Shipments, World Market 2004-2010
Table 7-6 UMTS TDD Device Revenues, World Market 2004-2010
Table 7-7 UMTS TDD Base Station Shipments and Deployments
World Market 2004-2010
Table 7-8 UMTS TDD Infrastructure Revenues, World Market
2004-2010
Section Eight
Table 8-1 Mobile Subscribers, China Market 2004-2010
Table 8-2 TD-SCDMA Subscribers, World Market 2006-2011
Table 8-3 TD-SCDMA Subscribers by Region and Share of all
Subscribers China 2006-2011
Table 8-4 TD-SCDMA Subscribers Outside of China, World
Market 2008-2013
Table 8-5 TD-SCDMA Service Revenues, World Market 2006-2011
Table 8-6 TD-SCDMA User Device Shipments, World Market
2006-2011
Table 8-7 TD-SCDMA Device Revenues, World Market 2006-2011
Table 8-8 TD-SCDMA Base Station Shipments and Deployments
World Market 2006–2011
Table 8-9 TD-SCDMA Infrastructure Shipment Revenues World
Market 2006–2011 |