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HSPA
Mobile Broadband Deployments |
HSPA
will account for most mobile broadband deployments while mobile WiMax
may capture niche markets
Other topics: WiMAX Network Sweden,
WiMAX CCTV Communication
February 7, 2007
Global study by Arthur D. Little presents an unbiased view on the HSPA
vs mobile WiMax debate
London -- With over 93 commercial networks in operation, HSPA is likely
to account for the majority of investment in global mobile broadband
networks over the next five years, finds a new study by Arthur D.
Little. By comparison mobile WiMax will be a niche technology within the
overall global mobile broadband wireless access market, likely to
account for at most 15% of this network equipment market and perhaps 10%
of mobile broadband wireless subscribers by 2011-2012. In its latest
report, "HSPA and mobile WiMax for mobile broadband" Arthur D. Little
unveils a non-partisan view of both leading technologies to present an
articulate guideline for operators, regulators and vendors, who are
investing for the future amid a cloud of hype. |
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In this wide reaching
study, Arthur D. Little consultants from its U.S. and European offices
interviewed 31 HSPA and WiMax equipment vendors, operators running the
networks, government regulators and financial investors around the
globe. They also collaborated with Altran Telecoms & Media and Praxis
HIS to collect some 300 parameters required for a quantitative
assessment of the differences and modelled these in realistic deployment
scenarios.
HSDPA (including HSUPA and HSPA+) is taking the lead as it is a natural
migration path for a large number of GSM and UMTS operators already
operating commercial networks in 3G spectrum. This will give rise to
significant economies of scale on handsets and user devices and a large
ecosystem of global suppliers of components, subsystems, equipment and
network design and implementation services. Hence this is the least
risky and best understood route to offering broadband mobile services
which can offer speeds comparable to first generation fixed DSL
services.
Commenting on the findings Michael Natusch, head of Arthur D. Little's
UK TIME (Telecoms, IT, Media and Electronics) practice, said: "The
momentum in HSDPA deployments has been stimulated by competition from
other broadband wireless technologies and by the prospect of competition
from mobile WiMax. However, there is as yet no convincing real-world
evidence of the actual relative performances of these technologies in
large scale deployments. Nevertheless, it is likely that these two
technologies will achieve comparable levels of performance in typical
real-world situations, contrary to the notion that mobile WiMax should
be regarded as a "Killer" technology
The results of Arthur D. Little's modeling work shows that WiMax systems
are expected to achieve significantly greater theoretical peak data
transfer rates when deployed than today's commercial HSPA networks
deliver now, such as theoretical speeds of e.g. 16.8 Mbps in urban areas
vs 2-3 Mbps for HSPA. However, the coverage a WiMax base station can
achieve, is substantially lower than HSPA, hence HSPA operators will be
able to deploy a smaller number of base stations and sites to cover the
same geography. Indications are that radio access network capex for
current WiMax technology can significantly exceed HSDPA capex.
Another consequence of this characteristic of these two technologies is
that an HSPA operator will be able to match its growing investment more
clearly to the development of demand than mobile WiMax operators who
will have to install more cell sites at the beginning to ensure
coverage.
Arthur D. Little acknowledges that in the longer term, well into the
second decade of this century, mobile broadband wireless systems will be
characterized by technologies such as OFDMA and MIMO. Development of
these technologies is being pursued by the 3G/HSPA ecosystem within the
framework of 3G LTE as well as by WiMax. The long term future relative
roles of 3G LTE and mobile WiMax, both of which face major development
hurdles before they achieve the full promise of new, so-called 4G
systems, is uncertain and will be influenced by continuing expected
shifts in the priorities and competitive alignments of major players in
the wireless industry which has undergone a number of consolidations in
recent months.
In contrast to many other reports on HSPA, mobile WiMax and other
broadband wireless technologies, the Arthur D. Little study highlights
and assesses all the factors - strategic, competitive, commercial,
regulatory and political as well as technological that influence
operators' choices of wireless network technology.
Evidence for the potential complementary nature of HSPA and WiMax can be
seen in the increased interest in multi-mode user devices and roaming
capabilities across the technologies. This development, which reflects
the widespread anticipation of the central role of OFDMA and other
technologies involved in WiMax and 3G LTE in all eventual future
broadband wireless networks, is a welcome change from the provocative
and misleading headlines that have appeared over the past two years
which imply that mobile WiMax threatens the viability of today's HSPA
and related technologies.
Arthur D. Little
Arthur D. Little, founded in 1886, is a global leader in management
consultancy combining expertise in strategy and operations with deep
industry knowledge offering our clients innovative and sustainable
solutions to their most complex business problems. Arthur D. Little is
known for its collaborative client engagement style, exceptional people
and a firm wide commitment to quality and integrity.
Arthur D Little has over 30 offices worldwide, employing over 1000
people. The firm's global head office is based Paris. If you would like
further information on the firm please visit www.adlittle.com |
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