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Government Support Critical to
WiMAX Adoption in China
Market Expected to Generate Over 4 Million Subscribers and $7 Billion in
Revenue by 2012
Other topics: BWA Operational
Strategy, WiMAX Speed Solution,
WLAN Solution
NSR
February 26, 2007
Cambridge, MA -- NSR today released its newest market survey and forecast
report: China WiMAX, Assessing Growth Potential in a Complex Market. The
report provides an in-depth analysis of the emerging market for WiMAX in
China and presents demand forecasts for all WiMAX solutions (fixed and
mobile/nomadic) and customer types over the next 5 years.
NSR predicts a slow but steadily growing market for WiMAX in China.
>From a relatively low revenue base of $130.0 million in 2007, the
market is forecasted to grow more robustly in the latter years of the
forecast, exceeding $7 billion by end-2012. The overall market
translates to a growing subscriber base as well as a developing
ecosystem where government support, form factor development and market
receptiveness for new technologies favor the adoption of WiMAX. |
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"But in order for WiMAX
to succeed, many issues are now critical that will determine the shape
of the demand curve over the next several years. The attitude of the
Chinese Government towards WiMAX, which spectrum will be adopted, how
Chinese telecom carriers view it, and the relation between WiMAX and 3G
will all determine the development of WiMAX in China," states
Christopher Baugh, President of NSR.
The future of WiMAX relative to 3G is determined by the choice and
balance of the Chinese Government and telecom carriers, who generally
see WiMAX and 3G as complementary today. Their attitudes have (and will)
affect the development of WiMAX, but policy related to competition or
complementary positioning will not be felt until both mobile WiMAX
(802.16e) and 3G are launched.
"China's highly dynamic economy and growing wealth can only be sustained
with continued modernization efforts that favor free market principles
and the adoption of advanced technologies. The government will have to
open the market to established incumbents that are well entrenched, as
well as level the playing field to enable bold start-ups to gain a
foothold in the provision of wireless access services," according to
Baugh.
However, given the potential for a highly politicized policy process,
the report concluded that China's WiMAX market for service and revenues
is expected to exhibit slow growth from 2007 to 2009 before growing more
robustly beginning in 2010. This is largely due to ecosystem development
that is restrained by the lack of spectrum allocations by the
government. The spectrum issue is expected to be resolved by the end of
2007; however, actual allocations and peripheral issues are likely to
delay the full and quick penetration of WiMAX services and equipment
over the next three years.
"China WiMAX, Assessing Growth Potential in a Complex Market" is a
multi-client report now available from NSR. For additional information
on this report, including a full table of contents, list of figures and
executive summary, please visit www.nsr.com or call NSR at 617-576-5771.
About NSR
NSR is an international market research and consulting firm specializing
in satellite and wireless technology and applications. NSR primary areas
of expertise include emerging technology, IP applications, and broadcast
services. With extensive expertise in all regions and a number of
broadband sectors, NSR is a leading provider of in-depth market insight
and analyses. |
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